primary_scientific_research · SRC-MANNING-2023
Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198-1196 BC
Sturt W. Manning, Cindy Kocik, Brita Lorentzen, Jed P. Sparks · 2023
Reading ancient testimony
Ask who produced the document, for whom, and for what purpose. Distinguish its ancient creation from its modern edition or translation. Survival and excavation shape what can be read today.
Use the linked edition and reliability notes for the author, audience, transmission and limits of this particular source. Missing information is not an assurance of neutrality.
Document and modern access
- Type
- journal_article_and_dataset
- Publication
- Nature, vol. 614, 719-724
Records informed by this source
- event Ramesses III's Year 8 land and naval conflictsEvidence confidence: moderateinforms · discusses higher absolute chronology · chronology discussion
- date assertion Ramesses III's Year 8 land and naval conflicts — date assertionEvidence confidence: moderateinforms · discusses higher absolute chronology · chronology discussion
- date assertion Ramesses III's Year 8 land and naval conflicts — date assertionEvidence confidence: moderateinforms · discusses higher absolute chronology · chronology discussion
- event Severe multi-year drought in central AnatoliaEvidence confidence: highinforms · establishes date and proxy signal · abstract; results for 1198-1196 BCE
- date assertion Severe multi-year drought in central Anatolia — date assertionEvidence confidence: highinforms · establishes date and proxy signal · abstract; results for 1198-1196 BCE
- event Disintegration of the Hittite imperial systemEvidence confidence: moderateinforms · provides drought and historical context
- date assertion Disintegration of the Hittite imperial system — date assertionEvidence confidence: moderateinforms · provides drought and historical context
- causal hypothesis Central Anatolian drought as a Hittite tipping shockEvidence confidence: highinforms · provides drought timing and causal limits
- property assignment Hattusa — underwent — Administrative abandonmentEvidence confidence: highinforms · provides historical context
- property Regional severe droughtinforms · provides operational example · annual-resolution central Anatolian drought record
- entity Hattusainforms · provides regional climate context
- property assignment Hekla 3 eruption — has research status for hypothesis — Currently rejected causal hypothesisUnsupported explanationConfidence in this assessment: highConfidence in this assessment, not in the proposed storyinforms · provides target drought date
- causal hypothesis Hekla 3 initiated the Late Bronze Age collapseUnsupported explanationConfidence in this assessment: very lowConfidence in this assessment, not in the proposed storyinforms · provides target drought date
- property Currently rejected causal hypothesisinforms · provides target event chronology
- causal hypothesis Regionally staggered multi-causal cascadeEvidence confidence: very highinforms · supports regional tipping shock
- claim Hekla 3 did not cause the c. 1198-1196 BCE central Anatolian drought or initiate the main early phase of Late Bronze Age political failures.Evidence confidence: very highsupports · provides drought date
- claim Climate stress was regionally important and sometimes severe, but it was not one uniform Mediterranean event that independently caused every collapse.Evidence confidence: highsupports · supports central Anatolia case